TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 12d:01h:06m
$
This event monitors Starbucks' customer traffic in October 2026 through Carbon Arc metrics. Different thresholds indicate varying degrees of success in attracting customers to the coffee chain during that specific month.
Similar to the Walmart event, each market resolves based on whether the Carbon Arc Starbucks Foot Traffic value for October 2026 exceeds one of several thresholds, ranging from above 91 to above 101. Resolution occurs when the finalized Carbon Arc value is recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after October 2026 ends. The specific threshold determines whether each individual market resolves to Yes or No.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, analysts are offering a range of predictions regarding Starbucks foot traffic in October, but these forecasts are often based on models and assumptions that may not fully capture real-world dynamics. This market allows traders to incorporate a wider range of information and adjust their views dynamically as new data becomes available. It’s a fascinating way to see if the wisdom of the crowd outperforms traditional forecasting methods.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective belief. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with buyers pushing prices up and sellers pushing them down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and efficient expression of market sentiment regarding Starbucks foot traffic.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on officially reported Starbucks foot traffic data for October 2026. The specific data source will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome aligns with the verified results. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major economic shifts, such as a recession or a surge in consumer spending, could impact foot traffic. Changes in Starbucks' marketing strategies, new product launches, or shifts in consumer preferences could also play a role. Unexpected events, like a public health crisis or a major weather event affecting key markets, could also influence foot traffic patterns. Any news related to Starbucks' financial performance or overall retail trends will likely be closely watched by traders in this market.