TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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SSI public model released by…?
polymarket
predict

SSI public model released by…?

Aug 11, 2026, 6:42 AM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$135,135
Volume 24h:
$4,862
447%
Liquidity:
$856
80%
Open interest:
$9,202N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?

44%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 46¢ buys you 217 shares | Odds: 44% Total Payout: $217 | Net Profit: $117 Multiplier: 2.17x | ROI: 117% High Projected APY: 3,685% Low liquidity 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
44%
3%
Yes 46¢No 68¢
14¢
$148
$7,008
3%
17%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

November 30

Trade
33%
12%
Yes 51¢No 79¢
30¢
$107
$7,820
2%
18%
N/A
1mo 2w 3d
active
predict

October 31

Trade
12%
Yes 14¢No 91¢
5¢
$46
$1,152
0%
0%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
11%
1%
Yes 12¢No 91¢
3¢
$555
$31,817
0%
2%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.6%
Yes 13¢No 91¢
Avg: 4¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,855
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$211
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,271
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

August 31

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This group of markets asks whether Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) will release an AI model to the general public by specific dates in late 2026. A public release requires the model to be accessible, including via open beta or waitlists, and not just through closed or private access.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict use identical resolution criteria regarding public accessibility, qualifying models, and resolution sources.Primary resolution logic: Official information from SSI; consensus of credible reporting.

Core resolution logic:

  • A model must be released by SSI or associated with SSI.
  • The model must be made available to the general public (open beta or waitlist access is sufficient).
  • Closed beta or private access does not qualify as a public release.
  • The release must be clearly announced by SSI or explicitly labeled on their official website.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Waitlist Access: Open rolling waitlist signups are considered public accessibility for resolution purposes.
  • Labeling Errors: Labeling errors or placeholder text on the SSI website that do not correspond to an actually accessible model will not qualify as a release.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon official confirmation from SSI or a consensus of credible reporting regarding a qualifying model release, and no later than the specified date in each market.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) releases a model, and that model is made available to the general public between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be an AI model released by SSI or associated with SSI and confirmed as such by SSI or by a consensus of credible reporting. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SSI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SSI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Safe Superintelligence Inc. (SSI) releases a model, and that model is made available to the general public between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be an AI model released by SSI or associated with SSI and confirmed as such by SSI or by a consensus of credible reporting. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SSI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SSI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, the SSI public model market dashboard tracks predictions about whether an SSI public model will be released. Currently, this market aggregates trading volume of $135,135 with $339 in 24-hour volume, offering a consensus view of the probability of release. Polymarket currently favors the outcome of release by October 31, 2026, at 44.0%, while Predict leans toward the same outcome at 12.0%. This provides a comprehensive look at market sentiment surrounding this event.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a “wisdom of the crowd” that can differ from individual analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or have limited information, while the market aggregates diverse perspectives. While analyst opinions can be valuable, the collective forecasting power of a prediction market can sometimes provide a more accurate assessment of future probabilities. It's important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the likelihood of an SSI public model release.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict for this market can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity, which can lead to differing opinions and trading activity. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform varies significantly; Polymarket has seen a higher volume than Predict. These differences in market dynamics contribute to the spread of 32.0 between the probabilities offered on the two platforms, even though they are tracking the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on whether an SSI public model has been officially released by the specified date. The market will assess information from official announcements and widely recognized sources to determine the outcome. Traders should monitor relevant news and publications for updates that could impact the resolution of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly influence this market. Official announcements regarding the development or release timeline of an SSI public model would be a major catalyst. Positive or negative news about the underlying technology, funding, or regulatory approvals could also shift market sentiment. Any delays or unexpected challenges in the model's development process would likely decrease the probability of release, while successful testing and positive reviews could increase it. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders in this market.