TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:57 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket suggests a strong expectation for a specific closing price range for SpaceX. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on financial modeling and company reports. While analyst opinions are valuable, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential catalysts. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes anticipate events before they are reflected in standard financial predictions, offering a potentially leading indicator of future performance.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment surrounding SpaceX’s potential stock performance.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of SpaceX stock at the end of the trading week of October 26th. The specific price point that determines the winning outcome is defined within the market’s rules on Polymarket. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts once the resolution process is complete.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Major news regarding SpaceX’s Starship program, successful or unsuccessful launches, or significant contract announcements could all shift trader sentiment. Broader market trends in the technology or space exploration sectors could also play a role. Unexpected regulatory changes or shifts in investor confidence in Elon Musk’s leadership could also move the market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations in this market.