TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
$150-$155
- Polymarket
$150-$155 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 16, 2026
Time left: 01d:15h:18m
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This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of SpaceX closing within a specific price range, as indicated by the odds on Polymarket. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on fundamental analysis and financial modeling. While analysts may offer price targets based on company performance and market conditions, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are directly incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and analyst opinions can highlight differing perspectives on the future performance of the SpaceX stock.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the market. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, with a chance of 25.5%, is that SpaceX will close at $160-$165 on the final day of trading. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to new information and changing expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of SpaceX shares on the final day of trading during the week of October 12. The platform will verify the closing price against reliable financial data sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the closing price range will be rewarded based on their contract holdings and the market's payout structure.
Several factors could influence the price of SpaceX stock and, consequently, move this market. Major announcements regarding SpaceX’s projects, such as Starship launches or contract wins, would likely have a significant impact. Broader market trends, particularly in the technology and aerospace sectors, could also play a role. Unexpected news related to Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, or changes in regulatory policies could also shift trader sentiment. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on SpaceX’s valuation is crucial for understanding how this market might evolve before Oct 16, 2026.