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394,774

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SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
predict

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Volume:
$2,865,259

>$1.8T

 - Predict

>$1.8T - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 7:09 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

>$1.8T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$89,121
$495,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
Yes
predict

>$1.2T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$31,562
$476,953
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
Yes
predict

>$1.6T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$29,437
$458,464
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
Yes
predict

>$1.4T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,630
$391,612
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
Yes
predict

>$2T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$9,769
$344,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
Yes
predict

>$2.2T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$2,158
$248,225
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
No
predict

>$1T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$14,475
$235,681
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
Yes
predict

>$2.4T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$1,385
$176,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
No
predict

>$3T

View
N/A
N/A
—
$2,790
$37,850
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 3mo
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Frequently asked questions

The SpaceX IPO closing market cap market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Resolution is determined by the official closing market capitalization on the IPO's first trading day, as reported by major financial data providers and verified against SEC filings. The outcome hinges on the final share price multiplied by fully diluted shares outstanding at market close. Factors influencing resolution include investor demand, underwriter pricing strategy, macroeconomic conditions on IPO day, and SpaceX's recent operational performance. The market will settle based on independently verifiable, publicly available data to ensure accuracy and prevent disputes.

Key catalysts that could shift odds include successful Starship test flights, regulatory approvals from the FAA, major new government contracts, or changes in SpaceX's revenue guidance. Geopolitical tensions affecting satellite or launch operations, competitor announcements, or shifts in venture capital valuations of private space companies may also influence market sentiment. Broader macroeconomic factors such as interest rate movements, tech sector momentum, and IPO market appetite will shape investor demand at pricing. Management commentary on profitability timelines and international expansion plans could trigger significant repricing. Each milestone between now and IPO filing will be scrutinized by traders adjusting their probability estimates in real time on Predict.