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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?
polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?

Volume:
$36,485

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?

 - Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 6:36 PM EST

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S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36,485
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, October 26, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the S&P 500 direction market tracks the current odds of the index closing up or down on October 26. You’ll find a price history chart, displaying how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $34,321. The total volume traded on this market is $36,485. This allows you to see how much activity is happening and gauge overall market interest in the prediction of the S&P 500’s movement.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While a majority of analysts polled predict a slight upward trend for the S&P 500, this market shows a more nuanced view, with traders weighing various economic indicators and potential catalysts. This divergence highlights the unique wisdom-of-the-crowd approach inherent in prediction markets, where real money is at stake and participants are incentivized to make accurate assessments. It’s a valuable comparison point for anyone following financial markets.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the S&P 500 index closes higher or lower on October 26 than its opening price that day. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future predictions.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, are likely to cause volatility. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in Federal Reserve policy could also trigger substantial price movements. Earnings reports from major S&P 500 companies, particularly those heavily weighted in the index, will be closely watched. Any surprising news regarding interest rates, corporate profits, or global economic growth could influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.