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$154.7b

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$279,496,801

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2,984,640,614

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

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4,571

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5

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Southwest Airlines Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

What is the Southwest Airlines Credit Card Spend in September?

Volume:
$32,397

Above 106

 - Kalshi

Above 106 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 106

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,923
N/A
N/A
$1,997
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 110

View
100%
98%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,752
N/A
N/A
$2,851
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 102

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,273
N/A
N/A
$3,110
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 108

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,473
N/A
N/A
$1,800
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 112

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,405
N/A
N/A
$2,860
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 118

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,076
N/A
N/A
$4,056
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 114

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,244
N/A
N/A
$1,845
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 122

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,220
N/A
N/A
$2,212
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 116

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,031
N/A
N/A
$1,796
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

These markets track projected year-over-year changes in spending on Southwest Airlines through credit and debit cards in September 2026. The outcomes depend on whether reported spending growth exceeds specific thresholds, with higher thresholds representing larger increases compared to the same month in the prior year.

Kalshi

All markets share a common framework: they resolve based on the first year-over-year change index reported by Carbon Arc for September 2026 Southwest Airlines credit card spend. The index compares spending to the same month in the prior year, with values above 100 indicating growth. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., 102, 106, 108, etc.), and the market resolves to Yes only if the reported index exceeds that specific threshold. Once the initial value is reported and the market is settled, any subsequent corrections or revisions do not alter the outcome. The index is derived from Carbon Arc’s aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, updated daily. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with Southwest Airlines or Carbon Arc, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, odds from this market suggest a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may project a specific range based on historical trends and economic indicators, traders are pricing in additional variables such as consumer behavior shifts or promotional spending. This divergence can highlight areas where market participants see higher or lower risk than traditional research firms.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the most likely scenario as assessed by participants. The implied probability offers a snapshot of collective expectations, adjusted for recent news, financial performance updates, and broader economic signals influencing consumer credit spending patterns.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released financial data and widely accepted sources that detail Southwest Airlines' credit card spend for the September period.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles, including major economic announcements, changes in consumer confidence, Southwest Airlines earnings releases, and any significant promotional campaigns or partnerships involving their credit card program. Unexpected macroeconomic developments or sector-wide trends in travel and spending may also cause rapid repricing as traders adjust their positions.