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Southwest Airlines average passenger fare in Q3
kalshi

What will Southwest Airlines' average passenger fare be in Q3?

Volume:
$111,146

Above $215

 - Kalshi

Above $215 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 5:01 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $215

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,391
N/A
N/A
$6,913
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $185

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,500
N/A
N/A
$10,582
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $225

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,013
N/A
N/A
$3,987
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $230

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,356
N/A
N/A
$4,162
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $210

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,182
N/A
N/A
$3,358
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $220

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,524
N/A
N/A
$3,479
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $205

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,484
N/A
N/A
$3,086
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $190

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,732
N/A
N/A
$1,922
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,593
N/A
N/A
$1,403
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $195

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,197
N/A
N/A
$1,142
3mo 3w 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above $240

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,093
N/A
N/A
$12,116
3mo 3w 6d
No
kalshi

Above $235

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,081
N/A
N/A
$9,682
3mo 3w 6d
No
Total markets: 12

Description

Southwest Airlines will publish its average fare per passenger for the third quarter of 2026. This figure reflects pricing strategies and passenger volume dynamics, offering insight into the airline's revenue performance during that period.

Kalshi

The event resolves depending on whether Southwest Airlines Company reports an average passenger fare above specified thresholds in Q3 2026. Each market has a separate threshold, from $185 to $225 per fare. If the reported average fare exceeds a threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The thresholds rise incrementally across all markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the Southwest fare market, along with 24-hour volume of $27,199. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the average passenger fare that Southwest Airlines will report for Q3, offering a real-time view of market expectations and trading activity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced view that incorporates both public sentiment and trader positioning. While analysts may issue consensus estimates based on financial models and historical trends, the market price captures real-time betting activity and can diverge noticeably, especially around key earnings releases or fuel-cost shifts.

This market resolves around Feb 19, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final average passenger fare reported by Southwest Airlines for Q3 will be compared against the market’s settled value, closing all positions based on the officially disclosed figure.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles, including Southwest’s upcoming earnings calls, changes in fuel prices, regulatory announcements affecting ticket pricing, or broader economic shifts influencing travel demand. Any unexpected news around these areas may cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their expectations for the Q3 average fare.