Name: South Dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
Start: 2026-09-30T23:56:06.000Z
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Question 1

What does the South Dakota voting rights market dashboard track?

Accepted Answer

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the South Dakota voting rights market tracks the current odds of the ballot measure passing or failing. You'll find a price history showing how the market has valued the outcome over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $131. Total volume for this market is $2,673. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe is the likelihood of South Dakota banning noncitizens from voting in future elections, based on their collective wagers.

Question 2

How do prediction market odds compare to polling averages?

Accepted Answer

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding the South Dakota ballot measure. While polls attempt to capture stated voter intentions, this market reflects actual money being put behind beliefs about the outcome. Any significant difference between the implied probability from this market and polling averages could indicate skepticism about voter turnout, the accuracy of polling methodologies, or the potential for unforeseen events to influence the election. It’s important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the likely result.

Question 3

How is this market priced on Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a 'Yes' share reflects the probability of the ballot measure passing, while a 'No' share represents the probability of it failing. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure on 'Yes' shares will drive up the price, indicating growing confidence in the measure's passage, and vice versa. This creates a constantly updated forecast based on the wisdom of the crowd.

Question 4

When does this market resolve, and what determines the outcome?

Accepted Answer

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the South Dakota election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the ballot measure to ban noncitizens from voting has passed or failed according to the official count. The market will then settle, and traders will receive payouts based on the final outcome and their positions in the market. It is important to note that resolution depends on the official, verified results of the election.

Question 5

What signals or events could move this market between now and resolution?

Accepted Answer

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major endorsements or opposition from prominent political figures in South Dakota could shift sentiment. Unexpected legal challenges to the ballot measure's wording or validity could also introduce uncertainty. Additionally, significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in late-stage polling data, or major news events related to voting rights could influence trading activity. Finally, any changes to voter registration numbers or reported turnout rates could also impact the market's pricing.

South Dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?