TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.8b

24H VOL:

$85,370,070

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,160,869,143

337,988

Markets across

33,281

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,244

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
South Carolina Senate special election runoff margin of victory? (Directional)
Elections
kalshi

What is the margin of victory in the South Carolina Senate special election runoff?

Aug 17, 2026, 7:18 PM EST - Aug 25, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$366,086
Volume 24h:
$113
100%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$179,100
0.03%

Darline Graham, ≥3%

 - Kalshi

Darline Graham, ≥3% - Kalshi

100%

+20%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 27

Vol.

$115.5k

·

Resolves Aug 25, 2027

Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 3%?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 363 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether Darline Graham's margin of victory in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff will be at least 3%. On Kalshi, the current probability for this outcome stands at 99.0%, while the alternative outcome measuring a margin of at least 6% is at 1.0%. The market resolution hinges on official election results. The definitive answer will be known following the election runoff on 2027-08-25.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff, defined as the difference between her vote share and that of the candidate finishing immediately behind her if she wins, or the vote share of the first-place candidate if she loses. If she ties for first place, the margin is zero. Each market corresponds to a specific margin range, from 3% to 24% in increments, all inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound, with no rounding applied. Votes for Darline Graham are aggregated if she runs under multiple parties or listings. A margin falling within any specified range triggers a 'Yes' resolution for that market; otherwise, it resolves 'No'.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the South Carolina Senate runoff margin market, alongside a live display of trading volume. It shows how market participants price the potential margin of victory, updated continuously as new trades occur. The page also includes $366,086 in total volume and $113 in 24-hour volume, giving you a snapshot of trader interest and liquidity right now on this single venue.

Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different outlook than traditional polling averages. Traders incorporate factors beyond raw poll numbers, such as fundraising status, candidate viability, and historical trends, which can lead to divergence. While polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, this market prices in expected outcomes based on a broader set of variables and real-money bets, sometimes showing a wider or narrower margin depending on recent developments.

This market resolves around Aug 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin of victory will be calculated based on official tallies, and the market will settle accordingly, reflecting the actual difference in votes between the candidates as reported by authoritative sources.

Debates, endorsements, fundraising announcements, and shifts in polling data can all influence this market. Any event that changes perceptions of candidate strength or voter turnout potential may cause price adjustments. Media coverage of controversies or strategic missteps by either campaign can also move odds, as traders react to new information that affects the expected margin of victory.