South Carolina Senate GOP runoff: which counties will Darline Graham win?

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced or contrarian view. Pollsters and political analysts publish their expectations for county-level performance, but traders on Kalshi incorporate additional variables such as recent campaign momentum, local issues, and voter turnout trends. When there’s a gap between polling averages and market prices, it can signal where traders see value or unexpected shifts in voter behavior.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the odds through continuous bidding and asking, which determines the implied probability for each county outcome. The current top chance stands at 99.0%, reflecting the collective wisdom of participants. Liquidity levels, represented by volume of $123,799, also affect price stability and how quickly bets can be placed or closed before Jan 1, 2027.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final tally of counties won by each candidate will set the settlement, closing all positions based on the actual vote distribution recorded in the state’s certified results.