TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 8:13 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the nominee of the Socialist Party of France for the 2027 Presidential election. The Socialist Party will hold a primary to determine their candidate, and this market aims to predict the winner of that primary.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes a wider range of potential candidates and an 'Other' outcome, while Kalshi focuses on a specific, limited list. This creates a scope difference.Hero tip: Polymarket's broader candidate list and 'Other' outcome provide more comprehensive coverage, but the April 17, 2027 deadline is crucial. Kalshi's limited list may be simpler to track, but misses potential candidates.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the winner of the Socialist Party primary, with a fallback to 'Other' if no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59 PM Paris time. Includes a very large set of potential candidates, including 'Person X' through 'Person AO'. "If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other"."
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if any of the listed candidates (Glucksmann, Brun, Faure, Vallaud, Hollande, Cazeneuve, Guedj) win the primary. No 'Other' outcome is defined. "If Raphaël Glucksmann wins the primary...then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Kalshi
The French socialist bloc will conduct a primary election to determine its official candidate for the 2027 presidential election. Each market resolves to Yes if the corresponding candidate wins this primary selection process. The primary is expected to occur in 2026 ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Markets are eligible for accelerated resolution based on consensus media calls regarding the primary outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from prominent political figures within the Socialist Party would likely shift probabilities. Significant shifts in French public opinion, as reflected in polling data, could also influence trader behavior. Unexpected announcements regarding potential candidates’ platforms or campaign strategies would be key catalysts. Furthermore, any major political scandals or controversies involving leading contenders could dramatically alter the market’s outlook. Monitoring these developments closely will be crucial for understanding price movements in this market.