TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:28 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election in Brazil, forecasting which candidate will win. Currently, the consensus probability that Tarcísio de Freitas will win is 99.8%. This forecast aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes). Keep an eye on the election itself, expected to occur in October 2026, as the results following that date will determine the market’s resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms rely on the official results of the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election as reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to determine the winner.Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' for the candidate who wins the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election.
- Official results from the TSE are the definitive source for determining the winner.
- Interim or placeholder governors are not considered.
- If no result is available by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official decision of the TSE will determine the winner, and the market will resolve accordingly.
- Election Delay: If the election is significantly delayed beyond the expected timeframe, the resolution date of June 30, 2027, will be used as the cutoff. If no winner is declared by then, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Polymarket
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Kalshi
The 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election resolves based on which candidate wins according to Brazil's electoral system and is either inaugurated, sworn in, or takes office, or the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office. Resolution is determined by the official certification or declaration by the relevant Brazilian electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims, the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of source agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled by a court or authority after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until a re-run election or expiration.
Frequently asked questions
Differences in prices between Polymarket and Kalshi are common, even when tracking the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. This can stem from variations in trader demographics, market-specific rules, or differing levels of liquidity. For example, Polymarket might attract a different class of traders than Kalshi, leading to distinct risk assessments. Additionally, the volume traded on each platform influences price discovery; a larger volume generally leads to more efficient pricing. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, shifts in economic conditions within São Paulo, and unexpected political developments relating to the candidates are all potential catalysts. Polling data releases, while not always perfectly correlated, can also influence trader sentiment. Any significant scandal or controversy involving a candidate could also cause a substantial shift in the odds. Furthermore, unexpected events impacting voter turnout could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations.