TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)
kalshi

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

Volume:
$4,258

Above $105M

 - Kalshi

Above $105M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 11:55 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $105M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,394
N/A
N/A
$1,392
1w 5d 8h
Yes
kalshi

Above $95M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
$251
1w 5d 8h
Yes
kalshi

Above $75M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$24
1w 5d 8h
Yes
kalshi

Above $85M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
1w 5d 8h
Yes
kalshi

Above $115M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,294
N/A
N/A
$123
1w 5d 8h
No
kalshi

Above $125M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
$227
1w 5d 8h
No
kalshi

Above $135M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$43
1w 5d 8h
No
kalshi

Above $65M

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Yes
Total markets: 8

Description

Senate Majority PAC's financial position at the end of the third quarter of 2026 will be assessed based on cash reserves reported to federal authorities. This measurement reflects the Democratic-aligned independent expenditure committee's resources for Senate elections.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by Senate Majority PAC's cash on hand as of September 30, 2026, according to official Federal Election Commission filings. The event establishes progressive thresholds at $75M, $85M, $95M, $105M, $115M, $125M, and $135M. Resolution uses only the first official or non-preliminary FEC release; subsequent revisions or corrections do not affect the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds, price trends, and 24-hour volume for the SMP cash balance market. It shows how traders are pricing the likelihood of different cash balance outcomes at the end of Q3, with updates reflecting market sentiment and recent news. The display includes current top-outcome chances and volume of $4,258 to help users gauge interest and volatility in this market.

Compared to traditional polling averages, odds from this market often reflect a more nuanced view of expectations, incorporating factors beyond public opinion such as economic indicators and expert analysis. While polls capture stated preferences, this market prices in real-money bets that can react faster to breaking news or shifts in trader confidence. The gap between the two can highlight areas where market participants diverge from the broader public.

This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final cash balance figure will be drawn from official financial disclosures or authoritative news sources that confirm the SMP’s cash position at the close of Q3. Traders will watch for official announcements and reputable media coverage to signal when the market can be settled.

Key signals include official financial reports, economic data releases, and statements from SMP leadership or governing bodies. Any announcement affecting revenue, expenditures, or reserves — such as budget adjustments, major policy decisions, or unexpected shocks — could shift trader expectations and move this market. Additionally, broader macroeconomic trends and sector-specific news may influence sentiment in the lead-up to Nov 15, 2026.