TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Shell Monthly Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

Shell Monthly Credit Card Spend in September

Volume:
$43,697

Above 103

 - Kalshi

Above 103 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 103

View
100%
89%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,893
N/A
N/A
$3,131
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 106

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,928
N/A
N/A
$1,905
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 96

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,164
N/A
N/A
$3,489
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 101

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,139
N/A
N/A
$3,235
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 104.5

View
100%
90%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,874
N/A
N/A
$3,095
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 99

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,540
N/A
N/A
$1,539
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 113

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,947
N/A
N/A
$7,620
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 108

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,887
N/A
N/A
$2,411
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,326
N/A
N/A
$2,952
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

These markets track whether Shell's monthly credit card spending in September 2026, measured by Carbon Arc, will exceed various thresholds representing year-over-year growth percentages. The outcomes depend on the initial reported value, with later corrections not affecting the results.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Shell Monthly Credit Card Spend index for September 2026, comparing it against specific thresholds ranging from 96 to 113. The index reflects year-over-year changes in spending, where 100 indicates no change from the prior year, values above 100 signify growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the initially reported value for September 2026 exceeds its respective threshold. Once the market is settled using the first reported value, any subsequent corrections or revisions to the data will not alter the outcome. The index is derived from Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, matched to the same period of the prior year and updated daily as new data becomes available.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on officially released data for Shell's credit card spend in September, assessed against the market's defined thresholds. Traders should watch for the publication of Shell's spending report or reputable financial news sources that confirm the exact figure used for settlement.

Key signals include monthly consumer spending reports, shifts in oil prices, changes to interest rates affecting consumer credit usage, and any major economic announcements impacting retail fuel sales. Unexpected events like supply chain disruptions or significant marketing campaigns from Shell could also sway expectations. Traders will react to these developments as they refine forecasts for September's credit card spend, potentially creating volatility in this market ahead of resolution.