TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Shell Credit Card Spend in October
kalshi

How will Shell credit card spend perform?

Oct 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$28,670
Volume 24h:
$1,947
207%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$11,561
1%

Above 94

 - Kalshi

Above 94 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 14, 2026

Time left: 11d:08h:17m

Will Shell Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 94 ?

92%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 92% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 153% 11 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 94

Trade
92%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$2
0%
0%
$1
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 99

Trade
43%
Yes 67¢No 70¢
37¢
N/A
$9,114
0%
320%
$6,594
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 101

Trade
32%
3%
Yes 30¢No 83¢
13¢
N/A
$2,151
0.05%
116%
$672
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 103

Trade
24%
Yes 34¢No 84¢
18¢
N/A
$5,523
35%
41%
$2,188
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 107

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$9,081
6%
602%
$1,535
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 105

Trade
2%
Yes 67¢No 96¢
63¢
N/A
$2,649
0%
24%
$561
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 127

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$10
0%
N/A
$10
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 112

Trade
76%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$139
0%
0%
N/A
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 117

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 8h
Active
kalshi

Above 122

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 8h
Active
Total markets: 10

Description

These markets track projected growth in Shell-branded credit card spending for October 2026, using a statistical index comparing transaction volumes to the same month in the previous year. Higher index values reflect increased consumer spending relative to historical patterns.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on Carbon Arc's year-over-year change index for Shell Credit Card Spend in October 2026, with specific thresholds defining 'Yes' outcomes ranging from above 94 to above 112. The index calculates relative growth by comparing aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transactions from the target month to the same period in the prior year, where 100 represents equal spending levels. Final values are determined and locked at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day following the month's end, using Carbon Arc's daily updated transaction panel data. All markets explicitly disclaim any affiliation with Shell or Carbon Arc, treating trademarks as property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Shell credit card spend market tracks the current odds of whether October 2026 Shell credit card spending will exceed a specific threshold. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has valued this outcome over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,947. Total volume for this market is $28,670. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating and gauge the market's sentiment regarding future spending.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Shell credit card spending. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports, potentially leading to different conclusions. The collective wisdom of traders can sometimes outperform individual expert opinions, especially when considering complex financial indicators. It’s important to remember that this market represents a probabilistic view of a future event, reflecting the aggregated beliefs of participants.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. The current price reflects the probability that Shell credit card spending in October 2026 will exceed the specified level. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Market participants are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, which causes the price to fluctuate. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time assessment of the likelihood of the event occurring, driven by supply and demand.

This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual Shell credit card spending for October 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on officially reported data regarding total credit card transactions made on Shell-branded cards during that month. The specific spending amount that determines the outcome will be defined within the market's rules on Kalshi, and the result will be publicly available following the resolution date.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Macroeconomic indicators like consumer confidence, inflation rates, and overall economic growth will likely play a role, as these impact consumer spending habits. Changes in fuel prices could also affect Shell credit card usage. Furthermore, any major announcements from Shell regarding marketing campaigns, rewards programs, or changes to their credit card offerings could shift the market. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in consumer behavior related to electric vehicles could also be relevant catalysts.