TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Shein Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

What is Shein Credit Card Spend in September?

Volume:
$30,285

Above 76

 - Kalshi

Above 76 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 76

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,876
N/A
N/A
$2,349
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 79

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,266
N/A
N/A
$1,865
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 88

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,361
N/A
N/A
$2,358
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 70

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,981
N/A
N/A
$2,752
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,968
N/A
N/A
$1,649
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,604
N/A
N/A
$1,568
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 91

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,738
N/A
N/A
$2,336
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 94

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,329
N/A
N/A
$2,508
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 100

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,163
N/A
N/A
$2,385
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

These markets track projected year-over-year changes in Shein's U.S. credit card spending for September 2026, using an index where 100 represents equal spending compared to the same month last year. Higher index values indicate increased spending growth relative to the prior year.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for Shein's Credit Card Spend index in September 2026. The index reflects year-over-year changes in U.S. credit and debit card transactions, with values above 100 signifying growth and below 100 indicating decline. Any corrections or revisions to the data after market settlement will not affect the outcome. The index is derived from Carbon Arc's aggregated transaction panel, comparing the same period annually. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with Shein or ownership of related trademarks.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Shein Credit Card Spend market tracks real-time odds, price movements, and 24-hour volume on Kalshi. It shows how traders are pricing the likelihood of different spending outcomes for the month, offering a dynamic view of market sentiment and activity through $30,285 in total volume and $8,928 in 24-hour volume.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. While analysts may incorporate macro trends and historical data, traders on Kalshi adjust positions daily based on real-time signals, sometimes showing sharper shifts than published estimates. This can create divergence or alignment depending on recent news or economic data.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released financial data covering the relevant period, ensuring an objective and transparent close based on observable results.

Key signals that could shift this market include major announcements from Shein about credit card usage trends, changes in consumer spending behavior due to economic shifts, and quarterly earnings reports that hint at financing activity. Any surprise policy changes or partner announcements may also cause rapid re-pricing as traders reassess likely spending outcomes.