TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Sephora Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

What is Sephora Credit Card Spend in September?

Volume:
$16,433

Above 104

 - Kalshi

Above 104 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:23 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 104

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,386
N/A
N/A
$2,102
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 107

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,207
N/A
N/A
$1,204
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 105

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,161
N/A
N/A
$2,161
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 108

View
100%
82%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,193
N/A
N/A
$936
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 103

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$906
N/A
N/A
$509
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 106

View
100%
35%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$857
N/A
N/A
$857
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 102

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$834
N/A
N/A
$474
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 98

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$404
N/A
N/A
$230
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 112

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,250
N/A
N/A
$1,729
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 120

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
$234
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 116

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 124

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This set of markets tracks the performance of Sephora's credit card spending for September 2026, measured against year-over-year benchmarks. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold, where exceeding that threshold results in a 'Yes' outcome. The index reflects growth or decline compared to the same month in the previous year.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend index for September 2026, comparing it to sequential thresholds above 100. Each threshold represents a year-over-year growth level, with values above 100 indicating growth and below 100 indicating decline relative to September 2025. All markets resolve using the first reported value from Carbon Arc, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. The index is structured such that 100 equals equal spending to the prior year, and each whole number represents a corresponding percentage point of growth or decline (e.g., 103 indicates 3% growth). Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with Sephora or Carbon Arc, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks real-time odds, price movements, and 24-hour volume for the Sephora credit card spend market. It visualizes how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different spending outcomes for September. The display includes current top-outcome probabilities and volume of $16,433 to help users monitor market sentiment and activity levels as the month progresses toward Oct 14, 2026.

Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean toward specific projections, traders on Kalshi are pricing in their own expectations, which can diverge based on recent data, sentiment shifts, or upcoming catalysts. Comparing this market to analyst reports can reveal where public trading activity differs from institutional or research-driven views.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on official data releases or authoritative news sources that confirm September credit card spend figures, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Key signals that could shift this market include early spending reports, consumer confidence surveys, retail sales data, and any major economic announcements affecting consumer behavior. Earnings reports from related companies, changes in interest rates, or unexpected market events may also influence trader sentiment and drive price adjustments leading up to Oct 14, 2026.