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Who will win the Senate in Mississippi, Montana, and South Carolina?
Reps sweep
- Polymarket
Reps sweep - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 23h:47m:56s
Will Republicans win the Mississippi, South Carolina, and Montana Senate seats?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Montana that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The Montana race is represented by “Republican” and “Independent” (Ind) options. The “Independent” option refers to a win by a candidate running as an independent in the Montana Senate election. For purposes of this market, Seth Bodnar will be considered to be an Independent regardless of any affiliation that he may have with any party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins the Mississippi or South Carolina election, or the Democratic nominee or a third-party candidate wins the Montana election, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Montana that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The Montana race is represented by “Republican” and “Independent” (Ind) options. The “Independent” option refers to a win by a candidate running as an independent in the Montana Senate election. For purposes of this market, Seth Bodnar will be considered to be an Independent regardless of any affiliation that he may have with any party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins the Mississippi or South Carolina election, or the Democratic nominee or a third-party candidate wins the Montana election, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd and provides a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each scenario playing out in the Senate races.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the Mississippi, South Carolina, and Montana Senate elections are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which party controls each Senate seat following the election, and whether Montana's seat is held by an independent. This market will determine whether Republicans gain control of the Senate, or if the current balance of power remains unchanged.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major campaign finance reports, significant endorsements from influential figures, unexpected polling shifts, or breaking news regarding candidate controversies could all impact trader sentiment. A strong debate performance by a candidate, or a major shift in the national political landscape, could also lead to changes in the odds. Any event that alters perceptions of a candidate’s chances of winning could trigger substantial trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.
