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Who will win the Senate in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire?
Dems sweep
- Polymarket
Dems sweep - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 21h:14m:14s
Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?
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Description
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information beyond stated preferences. Polling averages show a close race, but this market suggests a different probability distribution for the final outcome. It’s important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have limitations, and neither is a perfect predictor of future events.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes – in this case, which party will control which Senate seats. The price of a share directly reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The most actively traded outcome currently has a probability of 77.5%.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the Senate elections in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which party controls each of these three Senate seats following the election. The final seat assignments will be determined by official election results and any subsequent legal challenges that are resolved by that date. The market will then settle based on whether the predicted combination of party control comes to fruition.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major economic shifts, unexpected candidate announcements, or significant changes in national political sentiment could all cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Polling data releases, particularly in these key states, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any major events impacting the campaigns – scandals, debates, or significant fundraising changes – could influence trading activity. Shifts in analyst forecasts and media coverage could also contribute to price movements in this market.
