TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is passed by the United States Senate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” "Crypto market structure legislation" refers to any legislation that does all of the following: 1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins); 2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; 3. Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. Examples of qualifying legislation include the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (H.R.3633) and "The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act" (FIT21). The following would not qualify: - Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; - Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; - Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); - Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; - Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; - Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules; - The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation); - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific); Qualifying legislation must be passed by the United States Senate. Passage by the United States House of Representatives or subsequent signature by the United States President are not relevant for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if crypto market structure legislation is passed by the United States Senate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” "Crypto market structure legislation" refers to any legislation that does all of the following: 1. Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (not solely for stablecoins); 2. Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; 3. Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. Examples of qualifying legislation include the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025" (H.R.3633) and "The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act" (FIT21). The following would not qualify: - Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; - Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; - Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); - Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; - Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; - Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules; - The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation); - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific); Qualifying legislation must be passed by the United States Senate. Passage by the United States House of Representatives or subsequent signature by the United States President are not relevant for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of the Senate passing the Clarity Act. The price of these shares directly reflects the market’s collective prediction. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares purchased, the higher the price rises, indicating greater confidence in the outcome. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price, suggesting waning optimism. This dynamic pricing ensures the market constantly adjusts to new information and trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether the United States Senate has officially passed the Clarity Act by that date. The passage must be documented through official legislative records and reported by reliable news sources. The market will then reflect whether the Senate successfully enacted the legislation, providing a clear and objective assessment of the event’s outcome based on publicly available information.
Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the legislative process, such as committee votes, floor debates, or amendments to the Clarity Act, will likely cause price fluctuations. Public statements from key senators or influential political figures regarding their stance on the bill could also move the market. Unexpected political events or shifts in the broader legislative agenda could also influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds. Any news that alters the perceived probability of passage will be reflected in the trading activity of this market.
