TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Who will win Senate seats in Michigan and Ohio?
Dems sweep
- Polymarket
Dems sweep - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 20h:28m:48s
Will Democrats win the Michigan and Ohio Senate seats?
$
Description
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Michigan and Ohio (including the special election in Ohio) that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Michigan and Ohio (including the special election in Ohio) that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Michigan and Ohio Senate races. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential events. Polling averages often show a close race in both states, but the implied probabilities in this market may differ, potentially indicating a stronger or weaker expectation for a particular party to win. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Michigan and Ohio Senate races. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the race. The current price indicates the collective forecast of all traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the results of the Michigan and Ohio Senate elections are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official election results certified by the relevant state authorities. This will determine which party controls each Senate seat, and therefore the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements regarding the election results as we approach the resolution date.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant fundraising announcements, endorsements from prominent figures, or impactful debate performances, could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic news, national political trends, or even unforeseen scandals involving candidates could also play a role. Additionally, changes in polling data, particularly if they consistently show a shift in voter preferences, would likely influence the probabilities reflected in this market.
