TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 7:23 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional polling averages because they incorporate betting behavior, perceived risk, and real-money stakes. While polls sample public opinion, this market reflects what traders are willing to pay now to bet on each candidate. If odds diverge sharply from polls, it may signal trader skepticism about poll accuracy or a reaction to new information.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through buying and selling contracts that pay out based on the election result. The current implied chance reflects the balance of bets placed. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect collective expectations, with volume of $49,178 showing overall interest in the outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The first-place finisher is determined by official vote tallies, and the market settles accordingly. Traders should watch for certified results to lock in payouts.
Key events such as debate performance, polling updates, endorsements, or controversies involving the candidates can shift this market. Economic data, regional voting trends, and campaign financing news may also influence trader sentiment. Any surprise changes in candidate viability or voting dynamics are likely to cause price swings as traders reassess probabilities.
