TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:58 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Santa Catarina gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election is expected to occur in two rounds if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket focuses on the winning candidate, while Kalshi focuses on the winning political party, creating a divergence in scope.Hero tip: Be mindful that a candidate switching parties or running as an independent could lead to differing resolutions between Polymarket and Kalshi.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the winning candidate, using a consensus of credible reporting and ultimately the official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
- Kalshi: Resolves based on which political party wins the election. Each market corresponds to a specific party (Liberal, Social Democratic, etc.).
Polymarket
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Kalshi
This event tracks the winner of the 2026 Santa Catarina gubernatorial election. Resolution occurs when one of the eligible parties—Liberal Party, Social Democratic Party, Brazilian Socialist Party, or Popular Unity—wins the election. The market may be resolved early based on a consensus of media calls regarding the election outcome.