TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Rishi Sharma
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 18, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 18, 5:14 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Saanich, British Columbia mayoral election. The markets consider various candidates and also include an 'Other' option for someone not currently listed. Resolution will be based on official election results.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the same outcome: the candidate who wins the 2026 Saanich mayoral election.Primary resolution logic: Official information from Saanich, British ColumbiaCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the candidate who receives the most votes in the 2026 Saanich mayoral election.
- If no candidate receives a majority, the market resolves to the candidate who ultimately wins after any run-off elections.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the event of a tie, the market will resolve to the candidate declared the winner by official Saanich election authorities. If no clear winner is declared, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
- Election Delay: If the election is delayed beyond October 17, 2026, the resolution date will be adjusted accordingly, but no later than June 30, 2027. After June 30, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
- Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets for that candidate will likely be paused. The remaining markets will continue to resolve based on the remaining candidates.
Polymarket
The 2026 Saanich, British Columbia mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Saanich, British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Saanich, British Columbia.
Kalshi
This market resolves to Yes if any listed candidate wins the 2026 Saanich mayoral election. Each candidate-specific rule defines a separate winning condition, and the market is eligible for accelerated resolution through a consensus of media calls.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader participation, market design, and available information. Each platform attracts a different user base with potentially varying beliefs about the outcome of the Saanich mayoral election. Furthermore, the liquidity and trading volume on each platform—currently $72,863 overall—can influence price discovery. Differences in trading fees or platform-specific rules can also contribute to price discrepancies. These factors mean that even though both platforms address the same question, the resulting probabilities can diverge, offering opportunities for arbitrage.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected policy proposals from candidates could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in public opinion, as reflected in new polling data, would also likely influence prices. Unexpected events, such as scandals or controversies involving candidates, could also cause substantial movement. Finally, any major shifts in the political landscape or local issues relevant to Saanich voters could also drive changes in this market.