TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 8:42 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of any diplomatic meeting occurring between Russia and Ukraine by November 30, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives a 99.4% probability to this outcome. The market resolves based on official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting, as defined in the resolution source. Traders should watch for any announcements regarding potential talks as we approach the resolution date, with the final betting period concluding on November 30, 2026.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any formally documented or widely reported meeting between authorized representatives of Russia and Ukraine before that date will determine the result, removing speculation through observable diplomatic activity.
