TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 12:16 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
In 2026, the Government of the Russian Federation imposed a temporary ban on exports of diesel fuel by fuel producers, which has since been extended several times, most recently through October 31, 2026 (see: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-30/russia-extends-diesel-export-ban-by-a-month-through-october). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of the Russian Federation issues a decree, resolution, or equivalent official action lifting, suspending, or terminating its ban on diesel fuel exports by fuel producers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The ban refers to the temporary prohibition on exports of diesel fuel by Russian fuel producers, most recently extended through October 31, 2026. A qualifying action that permits producers to export diesel fuel only to certain destinations, including the addition or expansion of exemptions for supplies under intergovernmental agreements, will qualify. Exports under exemptions already in effect at market creation will not qualify. Relief applying only to marine fuel or other gas oils, and not to diesel fuel, will not qualify. Actions affecting only separate restrictions, including restrictions on diesel exports by entities other than fuel producers or restrictions on gasoline exports, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying action relating to the producer diesel export ban. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that the ban may be lifted in the future will not qualify without a qualifying official action. Actions which provide partial or full relief from the ban will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must permit Russian fuel producers to export diesel fuel, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of the ban will qualify. Once a qualifying action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reinstatement of the ban. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Russian Federation.
Polymarket
In 2026, the Government of the Russian Federation imposed a temporary ban on exports of diesel fuel by fuel producers, which has since been extended several times, most recently through October 31, 2026 (see: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-30/russia-extends-diesel-export-ban-by-a-month-through-october). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of the Russian Federation issues a decree, resolution, or equivalent official action lifting, suspending, or terminating its ban on diesel fuel exports by fuel producers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The ban refers to the temporary prohibition on exports of diesel fuel by Russian fuel producers, most recently extended through October 31, 2026. A qualifying action that permits producers to export diesel fuel only to certain destinations, including the addition or expansion of exemptions for supplies under intergovernmental agreements, will qualify. Exports under exemptions already in effect at market creation will not qualify. Relief applying only to marine fuel or other gas oils, and not to diesel fuel, will not qualify. Actions affecting only separate restrictions, including restrictions on diesel exports by entities other than fuel producers or restrictions on gasoline exports, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying action relating to the producer diesel export ban. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that the ban may be lifted in the future will not qualify without a qualifying official action. Actions which provide partial or full relief from the ban will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must permit Russian fuel producers to export diesel fuel, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of the ban will qualify. Once a qualifying action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reinstatement of the ban. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Russian Federation.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding the timing of Russia lifting its diesel export ban. While polls may capture general sentiment, this market aggregates informed speculation and financial commitment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and participant incentives. Polls often reflect stated opinions, whereas this market reflects what individuals are willing to wager on, potentially offering a more accurate forecast. It’s important to note that polls and prediction markets assess different things, and both can provide valuable insights into potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined by supply and demand, meaning that significant news or events can quickly shift the probabilities and prices. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest information and collective wisdom of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will hinge on official announcements from the Russian government regarding the complete lifting of the diesel export ban. The exact date of the official announcement will be the determining factor. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as we approach the resolution date. The market will settle based on the first confirmed date of the ban's removal, as reported by reliable news agencies and governmental publications.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major geopolitical developments involving Russia and its relationships with oil-importing nations would be key catalysts. Changes in global oil prices, particularly a significant surge, could prompt Russia to reconsider its export policy. Official statements from Russian energy officials regarding export plans or potential changes to the ban will also be closely watched. Unexpected disruptions to Russian oil production or refining capacity could also influence the market. Any news related to international sanctions or trade agreements impacting Russian energy exports could move this market substantially.
