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Ruben Gallego out as Senator?
⌛Ending Soon
limitless

Ruben Gallego out as Senator?

Aug 26, 2026, 1:13 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Before Nov 3, 2026

 - Limitless

Before Nov 3, 2026 - Limitless

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:03h:28m

Ruben Gallego out as Senator?: Before Nov 3, 2026

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 3¢ buys you 3,333 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $3,333 | Net Profit: $3,233 Multiplier: 33.33x | ROI: 3,233% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

Before Nov 3, 2026

Trade
N/A
N/A
3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 28m
Active
limitless

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 28m
No
limitless

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 28m
No
Total markets: 3

Description

If Ruben Gallego leaves as Senator before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Ruben Gallego must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. Outcome verified from Ruben Gallego, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Fox News, Reuters, official government records and registries, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, CNN, the New York Times, and Politico.

Limitless

If Ruben Gallego leaves as Senator before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Ruben Gallego must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. Outcome verified from Ruben Gallego, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Fox News, Reuters, official government records and registries, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, CNN, the New York Times, and Politico.

Frequently asked questions

On Limitless, the dashboard for the Arizona Senate race tracks the implied probability of various outcomes related to Ruben Gallego's status as a Senator. Currently, the primary focus is on whether he will be out as Senator before October 1, 2026. You can view the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume directly on the Limitless interface. Total volume for this market is $0, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different scenarios.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Arizona Senate race. Polling data often reflects a snapshot in time and can be influenced by various factors like sampling bias and question wording. This market, however, represents a continuous assessment of probabilities based on the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. While polls may show a certain level of support for different candidates, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating future events.

On Limitless, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the market. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market's expectation of whether Ruben Gallego will be out as Senator, and changes in price reflect shifts in those expectations based on new information or analysis.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether Ruben Gallego is no longer serving as a Senator by that date. This will be determined by official sources such as the Senate website or reports from major news organizations. The market will settle to 100% if he is out as Senator, and 0% if he remains in office. Traders should monitor news and official announcements leading up to the resolution date for any developments that could impact the outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major announcements regarding Ruben Gallego’s political future, such as a decision not to seek re-election or a potential appointment to another position, would have a substantial impact. Significant shifts in the broader political landscape in Arizona, including changes in voter sentiment or key endorsements, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected developments related to potential challengers or changes in campaign finance could also cause the market to react and adjust its probabilities.