TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:08 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional polling averages because they incorporate bettors' financial stakes and real-time information flows. In this market, traders may price in factors beyond poll numbers, such as candidate viability, campaign resources, or regional dynamics. While polls offer a snapshot of public opinion, market odds reflect a more speculative, incentive-aligned view of likely outcomes.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through trader activity where participants buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The current implied probability reflects the collective judgment of Polymarket users about which candidate is most likely to win, adjusted for market liquidity and recent trading volume of $10,116.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of valid votes will determine the winner, and the market settles based on officially recognized results from the region's electoral authority.
Key events like debates, major policy announcements, scandals, or shifts in endorsements could sway this market. Economic updates, changes in voter registration, or emerging coalition partnerships may also influence trader sentiment. As Oct 5, 2026 approaches, any development that alters perceptions of candidates' electability is likely to impact odds, reflecting updated expectations about who will win the Roraima Governor election.
