TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:13 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Rondônia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Rondônia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often differ from polling averages due to trader sentiment, betting patterns, and perceived electoral dynamics. While polls sample public opinion, this market incorporates financial incentives and real-time adjustments based on news and campaign developments. Traders may price in factors polls miss, such as campaign momentum or economic conditions, leading to variations between the two measures. Monitoring both can offer a fuller picture of voter sentiment and market expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is determined by official vote counts and certified declarations from electoral authorities. Traders can track news and official announcements as the election date approaches to anticipate when the market will settle based on confirmed results.
Key signals that could move this market include major polling shifts, candidate debates, economic announcements, campaign scandals, or changes in voter registration trends. Events such as endorsements, policy rollouts, or regional crises may also influence trader sentiment. As the election nears, real-time news and updates from credible sources will drive price adjustments, reflecting evolving expectations about which candidate is likely to win.
