TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of Rogue's point-of-sale growth for September 2026, measured against various thresholds. The index reflects year-over-year spending changes, with higher values indicating increased consumer spending compared to the same month in the previous year. Outcomes depend on whether the reported growth exceeds specific numerical benchmarks.
All markets in this event are structured around thresholds for the Carbon Arc Rogue Point of Sale Growth index for September 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the index, as first reported by Carbon Arc for September 2026, exceeds a specified threshold—ranging from above 57 to above 77. The index measures year-over-year spending changes, where a value of 100 indicates no change from the prior year, values above 100 signify growth, and values below 100 indicate decline. The index is derived from Carbon Arc's point-of-sale receipt panel, which captures in-store and online purchases through receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period in the prior year. The panel updates daily, and determinations are based solely on the first reported value; any subsequent corrections or revisions after market settlement do not affect the outcome. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the underlying company, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market uses a continuous double-auction system where buyers and sellers post bid and ask prices, determining the current implied probability. The top outcome’s chance reflects recent trading activity and order book depth, adjusting dynamically as new information emerges about Rogue’s September performance drivers. Volume of $44,216 supports these price discoveries.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch official announcements, financial disclosures, and verified performance metrics from Rogue Point of Sale to determine if the September growth conditions are met. The process ensures an objective, transparent resolution aligned with publicly available data.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution. Key earnings reports, product launches, partnership announcements, or regulatory updates from Rogue Point of Sale may cause rapid price changes. Additionally, broader economic indicators — like consumer spending trends or sector-wide growth — can influence trader sentiment. Any unexpected news, positive or negative, is likely to create volatility as participants reassess the probability of achieving the September growth targets.