TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Rogers flips El-Sayed for Michigan Senate by November 2?
- Polymarket
Rogers flips El-Sayed for Michigan Senate by November 2? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 2, 2026
Rogers flips El-Sayed for Michigan Senate by November 2?
$
Rogers flips El-Sayed for Michigan Senate by November 2?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Rogers (R)'s hourly odds value is higher than Abdul El-Sayed (D)'s hourly odds value in the "Michigan Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Mike Rogers (R) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Mike Rogers (R) or Abdul El-Sayed (D) in the "Michigan Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Mike Rogers (R) and Abdul El-Sayed (D) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Rogers (R) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Mike Rogers (R) and Abdul El-Sayed (D) in the "Michigan Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-michigan-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Rogers (R)'s hourly odds value is higher than Abdul El-Sayed (D)'s hourly odds value in the "Michigan Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Mike Rogers (R) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Mike Rogers (R) or Abdul El-Sayed (D) in the "Michigan Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Mike Rogers (R) and Abdul El-Sayed (D) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Rogers (R) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Mike Rogers (R) and Abdul El-Sayed (D) in the "Michigan Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-michigan-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability of Rogers flipping El-Sayed for the Michigan Senate seat. This contrasts with polling averages, which show a more competitive race. It's important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and rely on self-reported data, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the incentives at play – market traders have a financial stake in accurately predicting the outcome, potentially leading to more informed assessments than those found in standard public opinion surveys.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of Rogers flipping El-Sayed for the Michigan Senate seat. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the demand for shares, the higher the price, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that aggregates the collective wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the market indicates a 1.3% chance of the specified outcome, based on trading activity.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Michigan Senate election by relevant election authorities. The platform will rely on widely accepted and publicly available sources to determine the official result, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market before it resolves around Nov 3, 2026. Major campaign events, such as debates or significant endorsements, could influence voter sentiment and, consequently, trading activity. Unexpected economic news or national political developments could also play a role. Furthermore, any shifts in polling data, particularly if they indicate a clear trend, could prompt traders to adjust their positions. Finally, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could create volatility and impact the market's assessment of the likely outcome.
