TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Ro Monthly Credit Card Spend in September 2026
kalshi

Ro Monthly Credit Card Spend in September 2026

Volume:
$14,076

Above 269

 - Kalshi

Above 269 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 269

View
100%
94%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$840
N/A
N/A
$566
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 245

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$509
N/A
N/A
$259
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 257

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 293

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,723
N/A
N/A
$1,294
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 341

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,105
N/A
N/A
$1,004
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 353

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,101
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 281

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,453
N/A
N/A
$793
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 302

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$848
N/A
N/A
$571
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 332

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
$247
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 310

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
$36
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 317

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 324

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

These markets track potential growth levels in U.S. credit and debit card spending for a specific month, comparing transaction volumes to the same month in the previous year. The outcomes depend on whether spending exceeds various predefined thresholds, reflecting broader economic activity and consumer behavior patterns.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for the Ro Monthly Credit Card Spend index for September 2026. If the reported index value exceeds the specified threshold for a given market (e.g., above 281, 293, etc.), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Post-settlement corrections or revisions to the reported value will not alter the outcome. The index measures year-over-year changes in aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transactions, with values above 100 indicating growth compared to the same month in the prior year. The panel data updates daily, ensuring timely reporting for market resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts for Ro’s credit card spending. While analysts often provide estimates, these are typically point predictions or ranges, lacking the probabilistic nature of a prediction market. This market allows for a more nuanced view, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders and their assessment of various potential spending levels. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts and prediction market prices represent different types of information and serve different purposes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of the outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own expectations, creating a dynamic and efficient market for forecasting Ro’s credit card spend. The current price indicates what traders believe is the fair value of the outcome, incorporating a wide range of factors and perspectives.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total credit card spending by Ro customers during the month of September 2026, as reported by Ro. The specific spending amount will be verified against credible public sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual spending level. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Ro regarding their customer base, marketing campaigns, or new product launches would likely impact trading activity. Broader economic indicators, such as consumer confidence levels and credit card spending trends, could also play a role. Unexpected changes in the regulatory landscape affecting financial technology companies or credit card processing fees could also shift market sentiment. Any news that alters perceptions of Ro’s growth trajectory or financial health has the potential to influence the price of this market.