TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:16 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election is expected to occur in October 2026, potentially with a runoff in late October. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the same event: determining the winner of the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election based on official results.Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the candidate who receives a majority of valid votes in the election.
- If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff election will be held, and the winner of the runoff will be the resolved outcome.
- If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the official results from the TSE will be used to determine the winner. If the TSE does not break the tie, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
- Election Delay: If the election is significantly delayed beyond the expected timeframe, the resolution date of June 30, 2027, will still apply. If a winner is not declared by that date, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
Polymarket
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the named candidate wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election. An outcome may be declared early when designated media sources reach a consensus on an election winner, with final resolution otherwise occurring after official results are certified.