TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:44 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same criteria: the winner of the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election as determined by the official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the election.
- If a runoff election is held, the market resolves to the winner of the runoff.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed before the election are not considered.
- If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the event of a tie, the official results as reported by the TSE will determine the winner.
- Cancellation: If the election is canceled or postponed indefinitely, PredictionHero will assess the situation and determine the appropriate resolution, potentially resolving to 'Other'.
Polymarket
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Kalshi
All markets resolve to Yes if the associated candidate is declared the winner of the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election. Early resolution is permitted once recognized media outlets collectively identify a winner, otherwise markets settle based on formal election certifications.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, which can be a more accurate signal of actual expectations. Polling averages can be susceptible to biases, such as sampling errors or strategic misreporting, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to express their true beliefs. However, both sources of information can be valuable, and discrepancies may indicate areas where further investigation is warranted. It's important to consider both when forming an informed opinion.