TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 12d:11h:39m
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The market assesses if rideshare app usage, measured through downloads for services like Uber and Lyft in October 2026, shows significant growth compared to the previous year.
All markets resolve using the Carbon Arc Rideshare Apps Array index for October 2026, recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the month ends. The index is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of year-over-year indices for Uber and Lyft, each weighted at 1/2. An index of 100 signifies no growth relative to the same month in the prior year, while values above 100 indicate growth. The official value is taken from Carbon Arc’s published data at the specified time, with no corrections for subsequent revisions.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to traditional analyst forecasts for rideshare app downloads. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi often provides a unique perspective, potentially incorporating real-time information and a broader range of factors than typical analyst models. If analysts predict significant growth in the rideshare market, we might expect to see increased demand for contracts predicting a higher array index. Conversely, pessimistic forecasts could lead to lower demand.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market operates as a continuous double auction, where participants buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the rideshare app download array index in October 2026. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome being correct. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price fluctuates, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment. The current price is determined by the highest bid and lowest ask, constantly adjusting to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official array index for rideshare app downloads as reported by a trusted source. The specific value of the array index will determine which outcome is considered correct and will trigger payouts to contract holders. The final price will reflect the actual outcome of the rideshare app download array index in October 2026.
Changes in the competitive landscape of the rideshare industry could have a substantial impact on this market. For example, a major marketing campaign by a competitor, a significant change in pricing strategies, or the introduction of innovative services could all shift expectations. Macroeconomic factors, such as overall economic growth or recessionary fears, will also be influential, as these affect consumer spending on transportation. Regulatory decisions impacting rideshare companies, and even major technological advancements in autonomous driving, could all move this market before it resolves around Nov 15, 2026.