TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:02 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Richmond, British Columbia mayoral election. Markets exist on both Polymarket and Kalshi, focusing on individual candidates and a 'someone else' option. Resolution will be based on official election results.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket offers markets on a wider range of candidates and includes an 'Other' option, while Kalshi only covers a subset of candidates.Hero tip: Be mindful that a candidate not listed on Kalshi could win, causing all Kalshi markets on the election to resolve negatively. Polymarket's 'someone else' market provides a hedge against this risk.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Offers markets on numerous candidates (including placeholders) and a 'someone else' option. Resolves to the winning candidate, or 'Other' if no result by June 30, 2027. "If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- Kalshi: Offers markets only on a select few named candidates. Resolves to 'Yes' if the specified candidate wins. No explicit 'Other' option exists; a win by an unlisted candidate results in 'No' resolution for all relevant markets. "If Kash Heed wins the 2026 Richmond, British Columbia mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
The 2026 Richmond, BC mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Richmond as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Richmond.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes for the market associated with whichever candidate wins the 2026 Richmond, British Columbia mayoral election. Each candidate has an individual market that will resolve positively if that specific candidate emerges as the election winner. All markets are eligible for accelerated resolution should a consensus of media outlets declare a winner, thereby allowing for prompt settlement without waiting for the full official certification process. The outcome is strictly determined by the official election results, and the accelerated resolution provision provides a mechanism to reflect rapidly converging public information when media sources align on a clear winner.
Frequently asked questions
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected controversies involving candidates could all shift probabilities. Changes in public opinion, as reflected in new polling data, would also likely influence trading activity. Debates and town hall meetings offer opportunities for candidates to sway voters, potentially moving the market. Any unforeseen events affecting the candidates or the campaign could also lead to price adjustments in this market related to the Richmond mayoral race.