Name: RFK Jr. Out by October 31?
Start: 2026-09-03T13:28:35.000Z
End: 2026-10-31T23:59:00.000Z

Question 1

What does the RFK Jr. campaign market dashboard track?

Accepted Answer

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the RFK Jr. campaign market displays the current odds of the 'yes' outcome—that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will exit the presidential race by October 31, 2026—as well as a price history chart showing how these odds have changed over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $404, and the total volume traded to date, which is $3,133. This provides a clear picture of market activity and sentiment surrounding this question.

Question 2

How do prediction market odds compare to polling averages?

Accepted Answer

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data regarding the likelihood of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ending his campaign. While polls attempt to gauge stated voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to risk capital on. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic misreporting in polls, the inclusion of undecided voters, and the inherent incentive for truthfulness in a financial market. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall assessment of the situation.

Question 3

How is this market priced on Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a 'yes' share directly reflects the probability of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the race before Oct 31, 2026. As more traders buy 'yes' shares, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand among traders on Polymarket.

Question 4

When does this market resolve, and what determines the outcome?

Accepted Answer

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. formally announces the suspension or termination of his campaign for President of the United States before the specified date. Any official statement from the candidate or their campaign team, widely reported by reputable news sources, will serve as the basis for determining the outcome of this market.

RFK Jr. Out by October 31?

Markets

Details