TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?
polymarket

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

Volume:
$208,632

↓ 30%

 - Polymarket

↓ 30% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:24 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↓ 30%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$63,219
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ 35%

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,565
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

↓ 25%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$20,363
$51,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$19,371
$39,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$18,362
$22,903
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$17,484
$21,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ 60%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$14,339
$3,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

↑ 55%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$16,298
$3,174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Republican Party's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Republican Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Republican Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for the Republican Party between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on the Republican Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Republican Party's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Republican Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Republican Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for the Republican Party between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on the Republican Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Republican Senate control market tracks the current odds reflecting the probability of Republicans controlling the Senate after the 2026 election. You’ll find a price history chart displaying how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $6,672. The total volume traded in this market is $208,632. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to the potential for a Republican majority in the Senate.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages regarding the Republican Senate control market. While polls can indicate voter preferences at a specific moment, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a continuous assessment of probabilities based on new information and evolving perceptions. Discrepancies may arise due to factors like differing methodologies, sample biases in polls, or the market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of predictive signals beyond stated voter intention. This provides a unique data point for understanding the potential outcome of the 2026 Senate elections.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of Republicans controlling the Senate. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. Higher demand for shares indicates growing confidence in a Republican Senate, driving up the price, while increased selling pressure suggests waning confidence and a lower price. This dynamic pricing ensures the market stays responsive to new information.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the control of the U.S. Senate is definitively determined following the 2026 elections and is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which party holds a majority of seats in the Senate following the election results and any subsequent seating of appointed or elected officials. The market will then settle based on this verified outcome, reflecting whether Republicans ultimately gained control of the Senate.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major economic shifts, key legislative developments, and significant political endorsements could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected candidate announcements, shifts in fundraising numbers, or major geopolitical events could also cause fluctuations. Furthermore, polling data releases, especially those indicating substantial changes in voter preferences, will likely move the market. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of a Republican Senate victory has the potential to shift the odds reflected in this market.