TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 2:06 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered. If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered. If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate’s likelihood of winning the Republican nomination. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of each candidate’s chances, and traders can use this information to express their own views or capitalize on perceived mispricings.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on who is officially declared the Republican nominee for President of the United States by the Republican National Convention. The market will determine the winner based on the official announcement, and all outstanding shares will be settled accordingly. This provides a clear and objective determination of the outcome of this market regarding the Republican nomination.
Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major debate performances, significant fundraising announcements, endorsements from influential figures within the Republican party, and shifts in national or state-level polling data are all potential catalysts. Unexpected events, such as a candidate dropping out of the race or facing a major scandal, could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, any news related to legal challenges or investigations involving the candidates could also influence trading activity in this market, reflecting changing perceptions of their viability.
