TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
How many Republican House seats will there be?
190+
- Polymarket
190+ - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:00h:32m
Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$
Description
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a nuanced view compared to traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of voter sentiment at a specific time, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many traders, potentially incorporating factors not fully captured in polls, such as fundraising, candidate quality, and evolving political landscapes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the predictive power of each approach. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall assessment of the 2026 House midterm elections.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final seat count in the House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. This market focuses on the number of seats held by the Republican Party after the election, providing a clear and objective basis for determining the winning outcome.
Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic shifts, unexpected candidate announcements, significant legislative developments, and shifts in national or regional political trends could all influence trader sentiment. Polling data releases, fundraising reports, and key primary election results will also be closely watched. Geopolitical events or unforeseen crises could introduce new uncertainties, leading to adjustments in the probabilities reflected in this market. Any event that alters perceptions of the Republican Party's chances in the 2026 House midterm elections could drive price movement.
