TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:24 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election. Currently, the consensus probability favors a win for the Parti Québécois at 99.0%, with the Coalition Avenir Québec trailing at 0.1%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on official results from Élection Québec if the Parti Québécois wins the majority of seats. With the election scheduled for October 5, 2026, keep a close watch on the debates beginning in September 2026 for potential shifts in voter sentiment.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets focus on individual parties winning, while Polymarket offers a broader 'most seats' resolution with tiebreakers. This creates SKU risk as 'Other' is not available on Kalshi.Hero tip: Consider Polymarket for a more complete view of potential outcomes and a defined tie-breaking process. Be aware that Kalshi's markets only cover specific parties.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to the party winning the most seats, with tiebreakers based on vote count and alphabetical order. Includes an 'Other' outcome if the election doesn't occur by January 31, 2027.
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if a specific party wins the election. No tiebreaker or 'Other' outcome is specified. Only covers a subset of potential winning parties.
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Kalshi
The party or coalition winning the most seats in the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election resolves to Yes. If two parties tie in seats, the one entering government resolves to Yes; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher vote share resolves to Yes. Only formally registered coalitions before the nomination deadline count. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. If results are contested, the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original election date, whichever comes first.