TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:16 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts which political party will finish in second place in the 2026 Quebec general election. Resolution will be based on the number of seats won by each party, with tiebreakers based on total votes and then alphabetical order. The election must occur and results must be known by January 31, 2027, for the markets to resolve.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same source (certified election results) and the same ranking criteria (seats won, then total votes, then alphabetical order).Primary resolution logic: Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca)Core resolution logic:
- The party with the second-highest number of seats won in the National Assembly will be determined.
- In the event of a tie in seats, the party with the higher total number of valid votes will be ranked higher.
- If a tie persists after considering votes, the party will be ranked alphabetically by its abbreviation.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Election Cancellation: If the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur or the results are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the markets will resolve to 'Other' (Polymarket) or will likely be cancelled (Kalshi).
- Ambiguous Results: In the event of ambiguity in the election results, the markets will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec.
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the certified results of the 2026 Quebec general election, specifically determining whether any of the listed parties—Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ), Conservative Party of Québec, Quebec Liberal Party, Parti Québécois, or Québec solidaire—finish in second place according to province-wide valid vote counts or percentages. Rankings are determined through plurality voting, with resolution relying exclusively on the final certified results from Élections Québec, not preliminary counts. In cases of exact ties for second place, outcomes are resolved proportionally (1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down). Should no listed party tie for second place and an unlisted party finishes second, all markets resolve as NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are still ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the market expiration date, all markets resolve as NO.