TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 10:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group forecasts the number of seats the Parti Québécois (PQ) will win in the 2026 Quebec general election. Markets across platforms offer different ways to bet on the PQ's seat count, ranging from specific seat ranges to thresholds for winning a certain number of seats.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The markets diverge in their structure; Polymarket uses seat ranges, while Kalshi uses 'at least' thresholds. This creates SKU risk as the same underlying event is segmented differently.Hero tip: Understand that a 'Yes' on a Kalshi market doesn't necessarily align with a specific range on Polymarket. Diversify your positions or focus on markets that best reflect your conviction.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket markets resolve based on whether the PQ wins a specific range of seats (e.g., 50-54). Resolution is based on official election results from Élections Québec.
- Kalshi: Kalshi markets resolve based on whether the PQ wins *at least* a specified number of seats (e.g., at least 27). Resolution is based on the number of seats won by the PQ.
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on the number of seats the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins in the 2026 Quebec general election, with thresholds ranging from 27 to 68 seats. A seat is counted when a PQ-affiliated candidate is declared elected and either legal challenges have expired, been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Affiliation is determined by the party banner at election time, irrespective of later changes. The count occurs when the new legislature convenes, accounting for contested or vacant seats. If the election is postponed, markets remain open until the rescheduled date, or resolve to the last fair price if postponement exceeds one year. Cancellation or partial elections follow similar resolution rules, with by-elections counted only if held simultaneously with the main election.