TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
36-39
- Polymarket
36-39 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 27, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 27, 3:42 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the number of seats the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) will win in the 2026 Quebec general election. Resolution will be based on official election results reported by Élections Québec, focusing solely on seats won under the PLQ affiliation.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket offers ranges, while Kalshi offers individual seat thresholds, creating SKU risk and requiring careful consideration of the precise resolution criteria.Hero tip: Consider hedging across platforms if you have a strong directional view but are unsure of the exact seat count. Pay close attention to the specific thresholds offered on each platform.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket markets ask whether the PLQ will win fewer than a certain number of seats or within a specified range (e.g., 28-31, 32-35). Resolution is based on the official seat count as reported by Élections Québec.
- Kalshi: Kalshi markets ask whether the PLQ will win at least a specific number of seats (e.g., 28, 29, 30). Resolution is based on whether the PLQ wins *at least* that number of seats, according to official results.
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on whether the Quebec Liberal Party secures a minimum number of seats in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, with thresholds ranging from 28 to 37 seats. A seat is counted when a candidate affiliated with the party is declared elected, legal challenges are resolved, or the member takes their seat. Affiliation is determined by the party banner at election time, regardless of later changes. The count occurs when the new legislature convenes, including any same-day by-elections. If the election is postponed, markets remain open until the rescheduled date, or settle at the last fair price if postponed beyond one year. Cancellations or partial elections follow specific resolution rules based on completion and fairness.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a different type of information than traditional polls. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market captures incentivized predictions – what people are willing to put their money on. This can lead to divergences, especially when considering factors like strategic voting or uncertainty about voter turnout. While polls provide a snapshot of current sentiment, the aggregated wisdom of the crowd in this market can offer a more nuanced forecast of the final Quebec election seat count. It’s a complementary data point, not a replacement for polling data.