TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 3:44 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than traditional polling averages. While polls suggest a close race, this market indicates a stronger likelihood of a significant win for the Parti Québécois. It is important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to methodological limitations, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd and continuously adjust based on new information. This difference highlights how traders weigh various factors beyond simple vote intention, such as campaign dynamics and potential for strategic voting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different seat margin outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price, the greater the perceived chance of that outcome. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the eventual result. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and insights available.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Quebec general election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by the actual seat margin achieved by the winning party in the Quebec National Assembly. The market will settle based on the final, certified election results released by Elections Quebec, providing a clear and objective determination of the winning margin. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major policy announcements from party leaders, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling, and significant campaign events like debates could all influence trader sentiment. Any unforeseen scandals or controversies involving key candidates could also lead to rapid price adjustments. Furthermore, economic news or external events impacting Quebec's political landscape could also play a role in shaping the market’s predictions. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds.
