TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:54 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different perspective than traditional polling data. Polling averages suggest a potentially closer race, while the current probabilities on Polymarket indicate a stronger likelihood of the CAQ securing a significant number of seats. It’s important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and rely on stated preferences, whereas this market represents what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially incorporating more nuanced information and anticipating strategic voting behavior. This difference highlights how prediction markets can offer a unique signal beyond conventional political analysis.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the price of each outcome in this market is determined by supply and demand. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final number of seats the CAQ will win. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price of that outcome increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, if more people sell, the price decreases. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds continuously adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market will resolve around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Quebec election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final seat count for the CAQ will be the determining factor, and the market will settle to reflect the accurate outcome as reported by election authorities. Traders should monitor news sources and official announcements as the election results become available to understand the resolution process.
Changes in polling data, particularly if they indicate a significant shift in voter preferences, are likely to move this market. Unexpected endorsements from influential figures or major campaign events could also influence trader behavior. Any significant economic news specific to Quebec, or broader political developments that impact provincial politics, could also cause the odds to fluctuate. Finally, unexpected candidate withdrawals or controversies could also have a substantial impact on this market before it resolves around Oct 5, 2026.
