TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 8:22 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the number of seats the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) party will win in the 2026 Quebec general election. The markets resolve based on official election results reported by Élections Québec, focusing solely on seats won under the CAQ's official party affiliation.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The platforms utilize different seat thresholds and market structures (ranges vs. specific numbers), creating SKU risk and potential for divergent outcomes.Hero tip: Traders should carefully consider the specific seat thresholds offered on Kalshi and the range-based markets on Polymarket. Delayed election results could significantly impact Polymarket markets due to the 'lowest bracket' resolution rule.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Markets are structured around ranges of seats (e.g., 5-9, 10-14). Resolves to the lowest bracket if results are not known by January 31, 2027. "This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election."
- Kalshi: Markets are structured around specific seat thresholds (e.g., at least 12, at least 20). Resolves to 'Yes' if the CAQ wins at least the specified number of seats. "If Coalition avenir Québec has won at least 12 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on the number of seats won by the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) in the 2026 Quebec general election, with thresholds ranging from 12 to 52 seats. A seat is considered 'won' when a CAQ-affiliated candidate is declared elected by the relevant electoral authority, legal challenges are resolved or expired, and the member takes their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the election banner, regardless of later changes. The count occurs when the new legislature convenes, including any same-day by-elections, but excluding later by-elections. If the election is postponed within one year, markets remain open; beyond that, or if cancelled, markets resolve at the last fair price. Only contested and filled seats are counted.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major policy announcements from the leading parties, unexpected shifts in polling data, and significant economic news could all cause price fluctuations. Debates between party leaders, scandals involving candidates, and endorsements from influential figures are also potential catalysts. Changes in voter sentiment, reflected in social media trends or local reporting, could also move the market. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of the CAQ winning a specific number of seats has the potential to influence trading activity.