TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.9b

24H VOL:

$90,087,139

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,351,118,393

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,131,582,423

316,324

Markets across

30,916

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,401

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Science and Technology
Entertainment
Precipitation in NYC in August?
Other
polymarket
kalshi

Precipitation in NYC in August?

Total volume:
$40,440
Volume 24h:
$25,464
173%
Liquidity:
$1,354
3%
Open interest:
$33,346
225%

>6"

 - Polymarket

>6" - Polymarket

97%

+25%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

70%75%80%85%90%95%

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Vol.

$430.3

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 07d:05h:51m

Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in August?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 389% Low liquidity 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This event group tracks precipitation levels in New York City during August 2026. The Polymarket questions focus on total monthly precipitation measured at Central Park, while the Kalshi markets focus on precipitation events at multiple US cities during a specific two-day window in August.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in geographic scope, timeframe, and measurement methodology between Polymarket's NYC monthly total precipitation and Kalshi's multi-city two-day precipitation eventsHero tip: Treat these as entirely separate markets since they measure different things. Polymarket resolves based on NYC's full August precipitation total, while Kalshi resolves based on any precipitation event during a specific two-day window at any of 20 US cities.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Measures total precipitation in NYC (Central Park) for the entire month of August 2026 using NOAA data, with precision to 2 decimal places. Markets resolve based on brackets: <2", 2-3", 3-4", 4-5", 5-6", >6".
  • Kalshi: Measures precipitation events at 20 different US cities during August 22-23, 2026 only. Market resolves to Yes if ANY of the listed cities records >0" precipitation during that two-day window, otherwise No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

Each market evaluates whether measurable precipitation—defined as strictly greater than 0 inches—falls at the specified weather station within the August 22–23, 2026 weekend. "Trace" amounts and missing data are counted as 0 inches and do not satisfy the threshold. All outcomes rely exclusively on data from the Weather Company via the provided URL, overriding other potential weather sources. The determination hinges solely on the official precipitation readings for each city’s designated station during the defined dates.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the NYC August precipitation market aggregates betting data from multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume trends for this event. It tracks how traders across platforms price the likelihood of specific precipitation levels occurring in New York City during August. The view combines inputs from all participating markets into a single, easy-to-read consensus display, letting users monitor shifts in collective wisdom as the month approaches.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Official meteorological data sources will determine whether the August precipitation thresholds are met, closing the market based on observable, third-party records rather than internal calculations.

Medium-term weather outlooks, seasonal forecasts, and sudden climate shifts could sway this market. Key signals include updated NOAA projections, El Niño or La Niña developments, and high-profile weather service alerts. As Sep 1, 2026 approaches, daily precipitation reports and model consensus changes will drive sharp price swings, especially if early-month rain patterns set a trend.