TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Polymarket IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
predict

Polymarket IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Sep 21, 2026, 6:43 AM EST - Jan 1, 2028, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,673,665
Volume 24h:
$107,608
67%
Liquidity:
$566,681
3%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

$15B

 - Predict

$15B - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

Will Polymarket's IPO market cap be above $15B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

29%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 29.2¢ buys you 342 shares | Odds: 29% Total Payout: $342 | Net Profit: $242 Multiplier: 3.42x | ROI: 242% | APY: 176% 443 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

$15B

Trade
29%
Yes 29.2¢No 70.9¢
0.1¢
$69,891
$299,973
0%
31%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$20B

Trade
23%
3%
Yes 23.1¢No 77¢
0.1¢
$64,101
$260,481
4%
65%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$25B

Trade
20%
Yes 20.4¢No 79.7¢
0.1¢
$56,937
$264,665
1%
116%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$30B

Trade
19%
Yes 18.9¢No 81.2¢
0.1¢
$62,177
$162,657
9%
136%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$35B

Trade
17%
Yes 16.9¢No 83.2¢
0.1¢
$73,081
$233,511
8%
112%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$40B

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 12.2¢No 87.9¢
0.1¢
$75,092
$196,364
16%
237%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
predict

$50B

Trade
9%
Yes 8.9¢No 91.2¢
0.1¢
$165,402
$256,015
16%
178%
N/A
1y 2mo 2w
active
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether Polymarket’s initial public offering (IPO) will result in a market capitalization above $15 billion at the close of trading on its first day, by December 31, 2027. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Predict is 24.9%, while the probability of Polymarket’s IPO market cap being above $25 billion is 18.7%. Resolution will be based on Polymarket’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading, as reported by official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. Keep an eye on Polymarket’s progress towards an IPO, particularly any announcements regarding filing with the SEC, as that will indicate the likelihood of an IPO occurring by December 31, 2027.

Predict

This market will resolve based on Polymarket’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If Polymarket becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, this market will resolve to "No". The company performing the IPO will count towards this market as long as it is the company that owns (directly or via subsidiaries) the brand, software or CFTC-regulated exchange that is used to operate either Polymarket US or the international site (polymarket.com). Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on Polymarket’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the Polymarket IPO market tracks the current odds of the IPO closing market cap being above a certain value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $107,412, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,673,665. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for this market. The dashboard is a key resource for anyone following activity on Predict.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment on Predict suggests a high probability that Polymarket's IPO market cap will exceed a certain threshold. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a more cautious outlook. While traditional analysts rely on financial modeling and company valuations, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. It’s important to note that prediction market odds represent a probabilistic view, similar to a poll, and don't necessarily predict a definitive outcome, but rather the perceived likelihood as of today.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the IPO closing market cap being above a specific value. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure pushing the price up and increasing the implied probability, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system that adapts to new information and changing market sentiment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing market capitalization of Polymarket's IPO on its IPO day, as reported by a trusted financial data source. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their shares correspond to the correct outcome. It’s important to monitor news and announcements related to the IPO as we approach the resolution date to stay informed about potential developments that could influence the final result.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the IPO’s pricing, the overall market conditions for IPOs, or Polymarket's financial performance could trigger price movements. Positive news, such as strong investor demand or favorable market conditions, would likely increase the probability of a higher closing market cap. Conversely, negative news, such as a delayed IPO or concerns about Polymarket's valuation, could decrease it. Regulatory developments or broader economic trends could also play a role in shaping trader sentiment and influencing the price of shares in this market.